You’re right than an advance isn’t technically a loan (though in rare cases publishers can and have demanded repayment), but rather good-faith prepayments of future royalties. I know it’s hard to defend major corporations, but from your perspective (because ultimately you only get paid based on your book), your publisher advances the royalties and all associated costs. It all works out because there’s a constant stream of revenues coming in-house, but I can see why a publisher wants to hold on to the money as long as possible (even while I believe authors should be fighting tooth and nail for more frequent accountings and more aggressive releasing of reserves — especially Harlequin authors who have shorter shelf lives).

The publishing contracts are not designed to benefit authors — they are designed to benefit publishers. It’s the first thing I learned about contracts. The second thing I learned was they have a lot of words …

I’m on board with anyone who wants to put an end to me having to worry about a day job. Viva Susan Gable.

And also, thanks for your reply up there, Booksquare.

Joan, I am not aware of a model that is publicly available (though I haven’t actually looked that hard). That sort of thing, the projections, are generally Trade Secrets. Also generally a really complex spreadsheet done in really tiny fonts. Publishers don’t give out advances with the belief that they’re not going to earn out (see exception: celebrity bio). They do models and projections and Hold Meetings to come up with an advance that will at least approximate a breakeven. Historical precedents come into play, and I believe (don’t quote me on this), the weather matters.

So you don’t have to worry too much. It’s way more fun to stress over writing the second book. I understand that it’s a great way to keep your nails short and ragged.